With the excitement of the world cup in the air, winner predictions are found everywhere. From Nelly, the elephant, and Madame Shiva, the guinea pig, to Paul the Octopus- the fortune-telling abilities of animals have left us speechless many times in the previous world cups.  

In the South African world cup of 2010, Paul the Octopus became an overnight star after predicting the outcomes of eight matches correctly.  

The octopus was given two plastic boxes marked with flags of opposing teams, with a mussel in each box. He would pick the winner by landing on a country’s box and eating the mussel. Paul’s enigmatic ability to pick the right box as the competition went on captured the interest of international media. His final prediction of Spain winning the cup made him a sensation among fans across the world. 

Since our lives these days are governed by AI, this year’s winner predictions are also based on mountains of data and analysis fed into AI instead of gut feelings by the animal kingdom. 

Will England win the cup? 

The world’s leading marketplace, Lloyd’s of London, has based its predictions on the insurable value of each player. It says the tournament’s players’ total insurable value is around $26 billion, an increase of $10.6 billion since 2018. The research supported by the Centre for Economics and Business Research uses wages, sponsorship, age and position on the pitch to calculate players’ insurable value. 

Lloyd used this method to correctly predict the winners in 2014 and 2018. This year, it is backing England to win the cup. Lloyd’s valued England at $3.74 billion, making them the most valuable team in Qatar 2022. It rates Jude Bellingham of England as the most insurable player, followed by France’s Kylian Mbappe. 

Lloyd predicted England would top the group before beating Senegal, France and Spain during the knockout stages. Then it will win against Brazil in the World Cup final. 

AI predictions 

Leading sports data producer OPTA has used AI to predict the winner of the world cup. Its AI has created odds for each team, which change living during games throughout the tournament as every goal scored will change the possible route other teams could take to the final. 

OPTA has given Brazil a 16.3% chance of winning the world cup. Argentina has the second-best chance, followed by France, Spain and England, according to the prediction. Neymar, Vinicius Junior and their teammates have an 88.5% chance of reaching the knockout stages and a 25.7% chance of reaching the final.  

OPTA predicts England will top Group B, with the USA most likely to finish second, just edging out Wales. The USA are given a 0.7% chance of winning. With no team at this stage given more than a one-in-six chance of winning, the OPTA’s data show how hard it is to correctly pick who will lift the trophy on December 18.